How well can we predict future changes in biodiversity using machine learning?

About the project

Marine plankton communities are a fundamental component of the Earth system. They support food webs, drive global biogeochemical cycles, and play a central role in the regulation of Earth’s climate1. These ecosystem functions are carried out by an extremely diverse microbial community, and predicted changes in biodiversity and biogeography are therefore likely to have important impacts within the Earth system. Species distribution models (SDMs) have proved to be a powerful method for estimating contemporary plankton biogeography and biodiversity. However, they make a number of important and somewhat unrealistic assumptions2, especially in relation to marine microbial communities. Most notably, they neglect the known capacity of microbial species to rapidly evolve, and they do not account for dispersal by ocean currents. With SDMs increasingly being applied to predict the future response of marine communities to environmental change it is important that these sources of error and uncertainty are quantified. The aim of this project is to use a simulated ‘virtual ecosystem’3 to assess how evolution, dispersal and a range of other potentially important factors may impact the predictive skill of SDMs. This will improve our ability to understand how marine microbial biodiversity and biogeography will continue to be impacted by ongoing climate change.

For full project details visit the Inspire project page .

Supervisors

• Ben Ward (University of Southampton)
• B.B. Cael (National Oceanography Centre)
• Anna Hickman (University of Southampton)

Lead supervisor

• Lead supervisor: Dr Ben Ward Associate Professor

Dr Ben Ward

• Dr Ben Ward: Associate Professor

Dr Anna Hickman

• The role of marine phytoplankton in biogeochemical cycles
• Phytoplankton ecology, primary production, photo physiology and bio-optics
• Understanding the physical controls on biological processes and associated feedbacks

Entry requirements

A 2:1 honours degree, or its international equivalent , in one of these subjects:

• any numerate discipline
• mathematics
• oceanography or marine science
• physics

Fees and funding

INSPIRE studentships are funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC, part of UK Research and Innovation, UKRI). The stipend is in line with UKRI standard levels, including the recent cost of living increase.

All studentships are fully funded for 3.5 years.

How to apply

To make an application, visit the how to apply section of the Inspire website .

Contact us

For questions about the project, email Dr Ben Ward:

For questions about the application process, email the graduate school office:

• b.a.ward@soton.ac.uk
• gsnocs@soton.ac.uk

Research areas