Climate uncertainty and complexity of compound events and implications for the water system in Eastern England
Not stated
- Location
- Leeds, United Kingdom
- Funding
- Competition Funded PhD Project (Students Worldwide)
- Application deadline
- 13 January 2027
About the project
About the Project Background The impacts of compound events exceed the sum of individual impacts of underlying climatic and non-climatic drivers. These impacts often propagate through natural and man-made water systems but in complex and uncertain ways. The challenge for risk assessment and adaptation decision making is envisaging diverse plausible compound events, defining and mapping their relationships with the water system, and identifying relevant management options. Methodological developments in narratives/storylines and Decision Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU) can help address all three dimensions. Focusing on a real-world case study in eastern England, this research advances climate change risk assessment and adaptation science with real-world impact. PhD project Uncertainty and complexity are crucial elements in climate change risk assessments. While climate extremes are increasing there is concern that their complex interactions with natural and human systems could cause unexpected and severe impacts. Multiple climatic and non-climatic drivers sometimes interact to amplify impacts. The challenge is to understand how these compound extreme events (including High Impact Low Likelihood (HILL) events) interact and affect natural and human systems. Narratives and storylines offer a useful approach for generating qualitative and quantitative scenarios for exploring uncertainty and complexity, and applying adaptation decision making under uncertainty methodologies. Building and applying such interdisciplinary understanding will require developing skills in climate data analysis, systems modelling and decision making under uncertainty. The collaborative efforts of Dr. Ajay Bhave and Prof. Suraje Dessai (University of Leeds), Dr. Geoff Darch (Anglian Water) and Prof. Patrick Reed (Cornell University), will provide training opportunities, help develop skills and expertise to conduct novel interdisciplinary research, and generate impact through a real-world case study in eastern England. Research questions: 1. How can narratives/storylines help qualitatively and quantitatively explore plausible and relevant compound climate events and the associated uncertainties in future evolution? 2. How could systems modelling and decision making under uncertainty approaches be leveraged to assess complex risks from plausible compound events to the water system in eastern England and evaluate diverse risk management strategies? 3. How does the improved understanding of uncertainties and risks associated with compound events contribute to the holistic understanding of climate risks to the water sector? Applicant Profile Students with a background in water resources and/or applied climate science with a strong interest for learning new skills and conducting interdisciplinary research.